Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation.
Regime: STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence)
Correlation: 0.73 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: -1.20 entry / -1.83 rolling
Half-life 1.3h · Hurst 0.92 · Hedge ratio 1.34
Pair volatility: 27.47%
Backtest: 56.52% win · Sharpe -0.06 · -0.09% return · 1.90% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: POLYX / SUPER
- Roll Z-Score (1h): -1.83 (Snapshot age: 1.3h)
- Roll Z-Score (4h): -1.86 (Snapshot age: 7.3h)
- Correlation: 0.73 (1h)
- Hedge Ratio (4h): 1.038 (Sizing: 49.1% POLYX / 50.9% SUPER)
Setup Remark
This setup is a mean-reversion play based on a significantly negative z-score, suggesting POLYX is currently "cheap" relative to SUPER.
- Sentiment Conflict: Both assets are currently experiencing bullish sentiment—POLYX is driven by retail accumulation and protocol upgrades, while SUPER is seeing whale-driven momentum ahead of its migration.
- Risk: Because both assets are in bullish regimes, the pair may exhibit higher volatility than a standard mean-reversion trade. The trade relies on the assumption that POLYX's relative undervaluation (as indicated by the -1.86 4h z-score) will correct, even if both assets continue to trend upward.
- Technical Note: The 1h and 4h z-scores are deeply negative, indicating a strong statistical divergence. However, given the bullish sentiment on both sides, monitor for a "breakout" scenario where the spread fails to mean-revert and instead trends further due to idiosyncratic news.
POLYX
SUPER