Z-score (-1.27) is too close to the mean to be considered for a trade.
Regime: IDLE (high confidence)
Correlation: 0.60 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: -1.53 entry / -1.27 rolling
Half-life 115.0h · Hurst 0.90 · Hedge ratio 1.32
Pair volatility: 32.78%
Backtest: 64.29% win · Sharpe 1.35 · 0.81% return · 1.40% max drawdown
The recent divergence between ANIME and WCT on the 1-hour timeframe appears to be driven primarily by idiosyncratic factors affecting each asset, rather than broad market moves or sector-wide shifts. ANIME has experienced some downward pressure, likely due to a combination of profit-taking after a short-term rally and a mild cooling off in speculative interest. Meanwhile, WCT has shown relative strength, possibly buoyed by recent positive developments or announcements that have temporarily lifted sentiment around it. However, the divergence is not extreme, as indicated by the moderate correlation and the fact that the rolling z-score remains close to the mean, suggesting the spread is still within a normal range of fluctuation.
From a narrative standpoint, there is no strong, recent catalyst clearly explaining a sustained decoupling between ANIME and WCT. The absence of significant news or fundamental shifts in either project implies that the current spread deviation is more likely a transient anomaly rather than a structural change. This aligns with the regime classification being IDLE with high confidence, indicating that while the spread is somewhat off-center, it is not yet exhibiting the momentum or volatility patterns typical of a strong trending regime.
Quantitatively, the pair’s cointegration and relatively high correlation support the expectation that their prices should revert toward a long-term equilibrium. The half-life of roughly 115 hours suggests a moderate speed of mean reversion, meaning that while the spread does not snap back immediately, it tends to correct over a few days. The high Hurst exponent close to 0.9 further indicates a persistent mean-reverting behavior rather than a random walk, reinforcing the plausibility of a return to the mean.
The backtest results provide additional confidence: a win rate above 64% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.35 demonstrate that historically, trades based on this pair’s spread have yielded positive risk-adjusted returns. The relatively low maximum drawdown also suggests that the strategy has managed risk effectively in past cycles. Although the current rolling z-score of -1.27 is not yet at the typical entry threshold of -2.0, the static z-score being slightly more negative implies the spread is somewhat stretched relative to its long-term average, hinting at potential for reversion.
In summary, the divergence likely stems from short-term, asset-specific sentiment shifts rather than fundamental changes, and the quantitative framework strongly supports a mean reversion scenario. The pair’s stable cointegration, moderate half-life, and historical performance under similar conditions all point to the spread eventually closing the gap. This makes the current setup a plausible candidate for a mean reversion trade, despite the lack of a clear, recent fundamental catalyst driving the divergence.
ANIME
WCT