Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation.
Regime: STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence)
Correlation: 0.67 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: -1.46 entry / -1.68 rolling
Half-life 1.7h · Hurst 0.87 · Hedge ratio 0.51
Pair volatility: 41.03%
Backtest: 64.00% win · Sharpe 1.86 · 1.45% return · 1.01% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: STRK / USUAL
- Direction: Long STRK / Short USUAL
- Roll Z-Score (1h): -1.68 (Cheap)
- Roll Z-Score (4h): -1.46 (Cheap)
- Correlation: 0.67 (1h)
- Half-Life: 40h (1h timeframe)
Analysis:
- Statistical Setup: The pair is currently trading at a negative z-score (-1.68 on 1h), indicating that STRK is statistically "cheap" relative to USUAL. This supports a mean-reversion trade (Long STRK / Short USUAL) assuming the spread reverts to the mean.
- Sentiment Conflict: There is a significant divergence between the statistical signal and fundamental sentiment. STRK faces structural bearish pressure due to ongoing token unlocks, while USUAL maintains bullish sentiment driven by recent fundraising success.
- Risk Note: This trade is a "contrarian" play against the current sentiment. While the statistical z-score suggests the spread is stretched, the fundamental headwinds for STRK (supply overhang) could keep the pair depressed or cause the "cheap" asset to remain cheap for longer than the half-life suggests. Ensure tight risk management if entering against the fundamental trend.
STRK
USUAL