Pair is still diverging, but the momentum is slowing. A potential reversal candidate.
Regime: PEAK_DIVERGENCE (medium confidence)
Correlation: 0.63 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: 1.37 entry / 2.46 rolling
Half-life 1.7h · Hurst 0.90 · Hedge ratio 0.56
Pair volatility: 39.98%
Backtest: 70.37% win · Sharpe 5.30 · 4.22% return · 0.80% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long DYM / Short AIXBT
- Roll Z-Score (1h): 2.46 (AIXBT is statistically rich vs DYM)
- Roll Z-Score (4h): 2.25
- Correlation: 0.63
- Half-Life: 14h (4h timeframe)
- Hedge Weights (4h): 32% DYM / 68% AIXBT
Analysis & Remark
This setup presents a classic conflict between statistical mean reversion and fundamental momentum.
- Statistical Case: The high positive z-score (2.46 on 1h) indicates that AIXBT has significantly outperformed DYM recently, pushing the spread to an extreme. A mean-reversion trade (Long DYM / Short AIXBT) is mathematically supported by the current divergence.
- Sentiment/Fundamental Risk: The trade is fighting strong directional headwinds. Sentiment analysis flags DYM as bearish due to persistent vesting pressure and lack of TVL, while AIXBT is currently benefiting from bullish narrative traction and surging volume.
Conclusion: While the statistical setup is compelling for a mean-reversion play, the sentiment divergence is high. You are effectively betting that the statistical "richness" of AIXBT will correct despite its stronger fundamental momentum. Ensure tight risk management, as the trade is running against the current sector flow.
DYM
AIXBT