Pair is strongly reverting towards the mean with accelerating velocity and stable volatility.
Regime: STRONG_REVERSION (high confidence)
Correlation: 0.66 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: -2.06 entry / -1.57 rolling
Half-life 1.1h · Hurst 0.85 · Hedge ratio 2.03
Pair volatility: 38.37%
Backtest: 82.14% win · Sharpe 4.78 · 4.49% return · 1.68% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: BERA / SUPER
- Roll Z-Score (1h): -1.57
- Roll Z-Score (4h): -1.41
- Roll Z-Score (1d): -1.67
- Correlation: 0.66 (1h)
- Half-Life: 26h (1h timeframe)
- Hedge Weights (4h): 31.3% BERA / 68.7% SUPER
Analysis & Sentiment Note:
- Statistical Signal: The pair is currently showing a negative z-score across all timeframes, indicating that BERA is statistically "cheap" relative to SUPER. The setup aligns with a mean-reversion strategy (Long BERA / Short SUPER).
- Sentiment Divergence: There is a significant conflict between the statistical signal and current market sentiment. While the stats suggest a mean-reversion opportunity, sentiment is bearish on BERA (concerns over revenue and organic demand) and bullish on SUPER (driven by whale accumulation and migration catalysts).
- Risk: This trade is effectively betting against the current sentiment trend. While the z-score suggests the spread is stretched, the fundamental divergence (BERA capitulation vs. SUPER momentum) poses a high risk of the spread widening further rather than mean-reverting. Proceed with caution; the statistical edge may be offset by strong directional momentum in the underlying assets.
BERA
SUPER