Pair is still diverging, but the momentum is slowing. A potential reversal candidate.
Regime: PEAK_DIVERGENCE (medium confidence)
Correlation: 0.65 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: -1.38 entry / -1.50 rolling
Half-life 5.8h · Hurst 0.92 · Hedge ratio 0.81
Pair volatility: 33.60%
Backtest: 63.64% win · Sharpe 0.88 · 0.46% return · 1.29% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long ATOM / Short BIGTIME
Trade Status: Validated (Hyperliquid Core)
Statistical Snapshot
- 1h Roll Z-Score: -1.50 (Age: 1.3h)
- 4h Roll Z-Score: -0.14 (Age: 6.3h)
- 1d Roll Z-Score: -1.23 (Age: 1.3d)
- Correlation: 0.65 (1h)
- Hedge Ratio (4h): 0.81 (Sizing: 55% ATOM / 45% BIGTIME)
Analysis & Sentiment
- Mean Reversion: The negative z-scores (particularly the 1h and 1d) indicate that ATOM has recently underperformed BIGTIME relative to their historical relationship. This setup is currently "cheap" for a Long ATOM / Short BIGTIME position, aligning with the quant-optimal direction.
- Sentiment Context: This is a "bear vs. bear" relative value trade.
- ATOM: Bearish technicals; currently lacking catalysts to break its downtrend.
- BIGTIME: Bearish; facing significant structural headwinds from token unlocks and liquidity concerns.
- Remark: The trade relies on the assumption that BIGTIME's structural supply issues will cause it to underperform ATOM, even if both assets remain in a broader downtrend. The 4h z-score is near neutral, suggesting the mean-reversion signal is strongest on shorter (1h) and longer (1d) timeframes; monitor the 1h z-score closely for rapid divergence.
ATOM
BIGTIME