Correlation: 0.73 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: 2.62 entry / 0.96 rolling
Half-life 0.8h · Hurst 0.85 · Hedge ratio 0.83
Pair volatility: 32.56%
Backtest: 87.50% win · Sharpe 5.87 · 4.23% return · 1.30% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long ZK / Short PEOPLE
This setup is a mean-reversion trade betting that the recent outperformance of PEOPLE relative to ZK will correct.
- Roll Z-Score (1h): 2.11
- Roll Z-Score (4h): 2.29
- Correlation: 0.70 (4h)
- Hedge Ratio: 0.67 (4h)
- Half-Life: 5h (4h timeframe)
Analysis & Sentiment Note:
- Statistical Alignment: The positive z-scores (2.11–2.29) indicate that PEOPLE is statistically "rich" relative to ZK, supporting the Long ZK / Short PEOPLE direction as a mean-reversion play.
- Sentiment Conflict: There is a material divergence between the statistical signal and current sentiment. ZK is facing bearish pressure due to upcoming token unlocks, while PEOPLE is benefiting from bullish memecoin sentiment.
- Risk: This trade is currently fighting the momentum of both assets. The mean-reversion signal relies on the spread narrowing, but the fundamental sentiment suggests the spread could widen further if ZK unlocks trigger selling or if PEOPLE continues to capture retail flows.
Note: Z-scores are snapshots (1h ~1.2h old; 4h ~5.2h old). Verify recent price action before entry, as significant intraday moves may have altered the spread.
ZK
PEOPLE