Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation.
Regime: STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence)
Correlation: 0.69 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: -1.52 entry / -2.47 rolling
Half-life 5.8h · Hurst 0.90 · Hedge ratio 0.24
Pair volatility: 38.74%
Backtest: 58.33% win · Sharpe 0.90 · 0.59% return · 1.27% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long APT / Short ONDO
- Roll Z-Score (1h): -2.47 (APT is statistically cheap relative to ONDO)
- Roll Z-Score (4h): 1.94 (APT is statistically rich relative to ONDO)
- Roll Z-Score (1d): -1.88 (APT is statistically cheap relative to ONDO)
- Correlation: 0.69 (1h)
- Cointegration: True (1h, 4h)
Analysis & Sentiment:
- Mixed Signals: The pair exhibits a divergence between timeframes. The 1h and 1d z-scores strongly suggest APT is currently undervalued relative to ONDO, supporting your "Long APT / Short ONDO" direction. However, the 4h timeframe shows a conflicting signal (APT rich), indicating potential volatility or a recent shift in the spread that may not have fully settled.
- Sentiment Context: Both assets are currently viewed as bullish, but with distinct drivers. APT sentiment is driven by structural upgrades (AIP-146) and contrarian retail positioning, while ONDO is benefiting from institutional-grade demand and whale accumulation.
- Trade Note: The 1h z-score of -2.47 is a strong mean-reversion signal, suggesting the current spread is stretched. Given the conflicting 4h signal, monitor the 1h spread closely for confirmation of the reversion before sizing aggressively.
APT
ONDO