Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation.
Regime: STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence)
Correlation: 0.67 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: 1.43 entry / 1.53 rolling
Half-life 5.8h · Hurst 0.95 · Hedge ratio 0.66
Pair volatility: 30.88%
Backtest: 57.14% win · Sharpe -0.57 · -0.55% return · 3.60% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long ETC / Short ADA
- Roll Z-Score (1h): 1.53 (ADA rich vs ETC)
- Roll Z-Score (4h): -0.18
- Roll Z-Score (1d): 1.07
- Correlation: 0.67 (1h)
- Hedge Ratio (4h): 0.645 (Long 39.2% ETC / Short 60.8% ADA)
Analysis:
- Directional Alignment: Your chosen direction (Long ETC / Short ADA) aligns with the positive Z-scores on the 1h and 1d timeframes, which indicate that ADA is currently trading at a relative premium to ETC. This trade effectively bets on the mean reversion of ADA's relative strength.
- Sentiment & Context: Both assets are currently facing bearish sentiment. However, ADA is under specific pressure, with negative funding rates and technical rejection at key levels, suggesting it may be the weaker leg in this pair.
- Note on Stats: The 1h Z-score (1.53) is ~1.3 hours old; ensure you check current price action, as significant intraday moves can quickly alter the spread. The 4h Z-score is neutral, suggesting the mean-reversion signal is strongest on shorter timeframes.
ETC
ADA