Long ZK / Short SUPER · 1h pair

Pair is still diverging, but the momentum is slowing. A potential reversal candidate.

Regime: PEAK_DIVERGENCE (medium confidence)
Correlation: 0.68 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: 1.52 entry / 1.57 rolling
Half-life 1.6h · Hurst 0.87 · Hedge ratio 0.69
Pair volatility: 35.34%

Backtest: 78.13% win · Sharpe 4.92 · 3.18% return · 0.89% max drawdown

Pair Analysis: Long ZK / Short SUPER

This setup presents a conflict between statistical mean-reversion signals and fundamental sentiment.

• Statistical Signal (Mean Reversion):

  • Roll Z-Score: 1.57 (1h), 1.07 (4h).
  • Interpretation: The positive z-score indicates that SUPER is statistically "rich" relative to ZK. The mean-reversion trade is to Long ZK / Short SUPER to capture the spread narrowing.
  • Correlation: 0.68 (1h), 0.67 (4h).
  • Half-Life: 39h (1h), 12h (4h). The 4h half-life suggests a relatively quick reversion potential if the spread holds.

• Sentiment & Fundamental Context:

  • ZK (Bearish): Sentiment is weighed down by concerns over tokenomics and upcoming supply unlocks.
  • SUPER (Bullish): Sentiment is supported by strong speculative momentum and whale accumulation, despite migration uncertainty.
  • Conflict: While the statistical model suggests the spread is stretched (SUPER rich vs. ZK), the fundamental sentiment suggests a "trend" divergence where SUPER is outperforming ZK.

Summary:
The statistical setup (Long ZK / Short SUPER) is technically valid as a mean-reversion play, but it is fighting the trend. You are betting that the statistical "richness" of SUPER will correct, despite the bullish sentiment driving it. If you proceed, monitor the 4h z-score closely; if it continues to rise, the mean-reversion thesis may be invalidated by the stronger momentum in SUPER.