Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation.
Regime: STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence)
Correlation: 0.68 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: -1.42 entry / -1.57 rolling
Half-life 1.0h · Hurst 0.87 · Hedge ratio 0.37
Pair volatility: 28.23%
Backtest: 84.62% win · Sharpe 4.03 · 2.32% return · 0.60% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long ETC / Short SUPER
This setup is a statistical mean-reversion trade betting that the current spread (ETC/SUPER) is undervalued and will revert to its historical mean.
- Roll Z-Score: -1.57 (1h), -0.82 (4h), -1.16 (1d)
- Interpretation: The negative Z-scores indicate the spread is currently "cheap" (below the mean). The 1h Z-score of -1.57 suggests a statistically significant deviation, supporting a mean-reversion entry.
- Correlation: ~0.65 (Moderate)
- Cointegration: True (The pair maintains a stable long-term relationship)
- Hedge Ratio (4h): 0.376 (Long 37.6% ETC / Short 62.4% SUPER)
Sentiment & Context
- ETC (Bearish): Social sentiment is currently negative, which may be contributing to the spread's current "cheap" status.
- SUPER (Bullish): Strong momentum driven by whale accumulation and the Superseed migration catalyst.
- Trade Note: This is a contrarian mean-reversion trade. You are betting that the statistical relationship (cointegration) will hold and the spread will tighten (ETC outperforming SUPER) despite the current fundamental divergence where SUPER is showing stronger sentiment and momentum. The primary risk is that the "bullish" catalyst for SUPER continues to drive the spread wider, overriding the statistical mean-reversion signal.
Note: Z-scores are snapshots (1h data is ~1.3h old). Verify current price action before execution, as significant intraday moves can render these snapshots stale.
ETC
SUPER