Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation.
Regime: STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence)
Correlation: 0.60 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: 1.27 entry / 2.50 rolling
Half-life 2.8h · Hurst 0.92 · Hedge ratio 0.53
Pair volatility: 39.59%
Backtest: 63.16% win · Sharpe 2.50 · 2.20% return · 1.24% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: USUAL / AXS
- Pair Status: Long USUAL / Short AXS
- Roll Z-Score (1h): 2.50 (AXS is rich relative to USUAL)
- Cointegration (1h): True
- Correlation (1h): 0.60
- Sentiment: USUAL (Bullish)
Remark:
This setup is a strong mean-reversion candidate. The 1h Roll Z-Score of 2.50 indicates that AXS is currently trading at a significant premium relative to USUAL, providing a statistical basis for the Short AXS leg. The bullish sentiment surrounding USUAL further supports the Long USUAL leg, aligning fundamental momentum with the statistical divergence. The 1h cointegration confirms a stable relationship, making this a high-conviction mean-reversion play.
USUAL
AXS