Long SMSN / Short SOXL · 1h pair

long spread

Signal

Backtest

• Pair: Long SMSN / Short SOXL
• Venue: Hyperliquid HIP-3 (xyz:SMSN, xyz:SOXL); both USDC collateral; max leverage 10x each
• Roll Z-Score: -3.20 on 1h, primary signal; snapshot is ~1.3h old
• Z-Score: -1.42 (1h), -0.59 (4h), -0.70 (1d)
• Correlation: 0.75 (1h), 0.73 (4h), 0.82 (1d)
• Cointegration: True (1h/1d), false (4h)
• Half-life: 27h (1h), 10h (4h), 2h (1d)
• Hurst: 0.86 (1h/4h: weak mean-reversion quality), 0.50 (1d)
• Hedge ratio: 0.348 (1h), 0.345 (4h), 0.302 (1d)
• Suggested 4h sizing weights: ~74.4% SMSN / 25.6% SOXL
• Sentiment/news: No tool-verified sentiment, relevant 24-hour news, or catalysts for either ticker.
• Remark: The 1h roll spread is unusually extended, but the 4h cointegration break and high short-term Hurst readings materially weaken the mean-reversion case. With no confirmed news or sentiment catalyst, this is a high-divergence but mixed-quality setup; entry timing is important.
• Direction note: The requested Long SMSN / Short SOXL direction is preserved. The stats tool flags its generic z-sign interpretation as conflicting; do not treat the z-score alone as confirmation.