Long SUPER / Short PEOPLE · 1h pair

Correlation: 0.63 · Cointegrated: yes Z-score: 1.85 entry / 0.86 rolling Half-life 1.7h · Hurst 0.90 · Hedge ratio 0.53 Pair volatility: 29.36% Backtest: 75.00% win · Sharpe 2.09 · 1.84% return · 1.27% max drawdown ### Pair Analysis: Long SUPER / Short PEOPLE This setup is a mean-reversion trade targeting the relative richness of PEOPLE against SUPER. **Statistical Diagnostics** * **Roll Z-Score:** 1.32 (1h), 1.85 (4h), 0.86 (1d). * *Interpretation:* The positive z-score across all timeframes confirms that PEOPLE is currently trading "rich" relative to SUPER. Your chosen direction (Long SUPER / Short PEOPLE) is aligned with the mean-reversion signal. * **Correlation:** 0.60–0.63 (Moderate). * **Hedge Weights (4h):** 43.4% SUPER / 56.6% PEOPLE. * **Half-Life (4h):** ~12 hours (indicates a relatively fast mean-reversion process). **Sentiment & Context** * **SUPER:** Neutral. Sentiment is mixed with low engagement. While historically backed, the token is fully unlocked, which may create ongoing supply-side headwinds. * **PEOPLE:** Bearish. The asset is currently showing weaker sentiment, which aligns with the statistical signal suggesting it is overextended relative to SUPER. **Remark** The trade is statistically well-supported by the positive z-score, indicating PEOPLE is currently overvalued against SUPER. The 4h half-life of 12 hours suggests the spread may close relatively quickly if the mean-reversion holds. Monitor the 4h z-score (currently 1.85); a move toward 2.0+ would strengthen the conviction for this short-PEOPLE/long-SUPER bias, while a breakdown in correlation could invalidate the setup.