Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation.
Regime: STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence)
Correlation: 0.81 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: 1.32 entry / 1.94 rolling
Half-life 1.7h · Hurst 0.89 · Hedge ratio 1.34
Pair volatility: 28.86%
Backtest: 47.06% win · Sharpe -0.14 · -0.09% return · 1.19% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long STX / Short APT
- Roll Z-Score: 1.94 (1h) / 1.05 (4h) — APT is currently rich relative to STX.
- Correlation: 0.81 (1h)
- Hedge Ratio: 1.27 (4h)
- Cointegration: True (1h/4h)
Trade Note:
Your direction (Long STX / Short APT) aligns with the quant-optimal setup. The positive z-score indicates APT is statistically extended against STX, making this a mean-reversion play where you are selling the "rich" asset (APT) and buying the "cheap" asset (STX).
Concise Remark:
This setup is fundamentally supported by divergent bearish catalysts. APT is facing immediate supply pressure from a significant 11.31M token unlock, which typically drives short-term downside volatility. While STX is also experiencing bearish selling pressure, the specific supply-side catalyst for APT provides a stronger tactical basis for the short leg, potentially allowing the spread to compress as APT underperforms STX.
STX
APT