Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation.
Regime: STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence)
Correlation: 0.81 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: 1.33 entry / 2.12 rolling
Half-life 1.7h · Hurst 0.89 · Hedge ratio 1.39
Pair volatility: 28.82%
Backtest: 44.44% win · Sharpe -0.18 · -0.14% return · 1.19% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long STX / Short APT
- Roll Z-Score: 2.12 (1h) / 1.92 (4h)
- Interpretation: The pair is currently extended. A positive z-score indicates APT is "rich" relative to STX, supporting the mean-reversion trade of Long STX / Short APT.
- Correlation: 0.81 (1h) / 0.78 (4h)
- Interpretation: Strong historical correlation, making this a viable pair for mean-reversion strategies.
- Hedge Ratio: 1.39 (4h)
- Interpretation: For every $1 of STX long, you would short ~$1.39 of APT to maintain a delta-neutral position.
- Sentiment & Context:
- STX: Bearish sentiment; recent price action shows a failed volume-spike breakout, suggesting underlying weakness.
- APT: Bearish sentiment; significant token unlock pressure is currently overshadowing technical relief, with rising open interest on thin volume indicating a fragile, leverage-driven position.
- Setup Remark: This is a relative-strength play where you are betting on APT's specific supply-side headwinds (token unlocks) to cause it to underperform STX, even though both assets are currently facing bearish sentiment. The high z-score suggests the spread has widened significantly, providing a statistical entry point for the mean-reversion trade.
Note: Stats are based on 1h/4h snapshots; verify current prices as the z-score may lag intraday moves.
STX
APT