Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation.
Regime: STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence)
Correlation: 0.81 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: 1.62 entry / 2.76 rolling
Half-life 3.3h · Hurst 0.90 · Hedge ratio 0.55
Pair volatility: 25.66%
Backtest: 47.62% win · Sharpe 0.73 · 0.48% return · 2.25% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long SAND / Short PEOPLE
This setup is currently a live signal (Rank 3) on Hyperliquid, supported by strong statistical divergence, though it faces significant sentiment headwinds.
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Statistical Status:
- 1h Roll Z-Score: 2.76 (PEOPLE is statistically rich relative to SAND).
- 4h Roll Z-Score: 0.66.
- Correlation: 0.81 (High).
- Cointegration: True (1h/4h).
- Half-Life: 80h (1h TF) / 23h (4h TF).
- Note: The 1h z-score is ~1.3h old; verify recent price action as the spread may have tightened since the snapshot.
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Sentiment Context:
- SAND: Bearish (concerns over influencer engagement and token supply).
- PEOPLE: Bullish (retail optimism for memecoins).
- Analysis: This is a contrarian mean-reversion trade. You are betting that the statistical divergence (PEOPLE being "rich" vs SAND) will correct despite the current market narrative favoring PEOPLE and discounting SAND.
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Trade Construction:
- Direction: Long SAND / Short PEOPLE (Aligned with mean-reversion).
- Hedge Weights (4h): ~38% SAND / ~62% PEOPLE.
- Risk: Sentiment is currently working against the trade. If the bullish narrative for PEOPLE persists or intensifies, the spread may continue to widen despite the high z-score. Ensure your stop-loss accounts for this sentiment-driven volatility.
SAND
PEOPLE