Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation.
Regime: STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence)
Correlation: 0.84 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: 1.63 entry / 2.42 rolling
Half-life 2.5h · Hurst 0.90 · Hedge ratio 0.36
Pair volatility: 18.47%
Backtest: 53.13% win · Sharpe -2.20 · -0.41% return · 0.61% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long SILVER / Short GOLD
Statistical Diagnostics
- 1h Roll Z-Score: 2.42 (Snapshot age: 1.2h)
- 4h Roll Z-Score: 0.98 (Snapshot age: 7.2h)
- Correlation: 0.84 (1h) / 0.86 (4h)
- Cointegration: True (1h/4h)
- Hedge Weights (4h): 26.7% SILVER / 73.3% GOLD
Analysis
- Mean Reversion: The positive z-scores across all timeframes indicate that GOLD is currently "rich" relative to SILVER. Your chosen direction (Long SILVER / Short GOLD) aligns with the statistical mean-reversion signal, betting on the spread narrowing as GOLD potentially underperforms or SILVER catches up.
- Conviction: The 1h z-score of 2.42 suggests a significant deviation from the mean, providing a strong entry signal for a mean-reversion strategy. The 4h and 1d z-scores are lower but still positive, confirming the trend is consistent across timeframes.
- Sentiment: No specific sentiment data is available for these assets.
- Execution: Both assets are available on Hyperliquid (xyz:SILVER, xyz:GOLD). Ensure you have sufficient USDC collateral for both legs.
Note: The 1h z-score is a snapshot; verify recent price action to ensure the spread hasn't already corrected significantly since the last data update.
SILVER
GOLD