Z-score (-1.27) is too close to the mean to be considered for a trade.
Regime: IDLE (high confidence)
Correlation: 0.73 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: -1.90 entry / -1.27 rolling
Half-life 5.5h · Hurst 0.91 · Hedge ratio 0.73
Pair volatility: 39.56%
Backtest: 54.55% win · Sharpe -0.28 · -0.28% return · 2.67% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long BRETT / Short ETH
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Statistical Signal (Mean Reversion):
- 1h Roll Z-Score: -1.27
- 4h Roll Z-Score: -1.47
- 1d Roll Z-Score: -1.49
- Interpretation: The negative z-scores indicate that BRETT is statistically "cheap" relative to ETH across all timeframes. The pair is currently exhibiting mean-reversion potential, with the 4h and 1d z-scores suggesting a significant deviation from the historical spread.
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Sentiment & Fundamental Context:
- BRETT: Bearish sentiment; community engagement is currently stagnant with a lack of fresh catalysts.
- ETH: Bullish sentiment; supported by institutional demand and strong fundamental metrics (TVL/FDV), despite recent technical resistance.
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Remark:
This setup presents a divergence between statistical mean reversion and fundamental momentum. While the z-scores strongly favor a "Long BRETT / Short ETH" trade (betting on BRETT to catch up to ETH), the sentiment profile is contrarian. You are effectively betting against the current trend (Bearish BRETT / Bullish ETH). If the z-score deviation is driven by fundamental weakness in BRETT rather than temporary noise, the "cheap" valuation may persist or worsen. Proceed with caution; this is a classic "catching a falling knife" scenario where statistical edge conflicts with directional sentiment.
BRETT
ETH