Correlation: 0.79 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: 0.57 entry / 1.71 rolling
Half-life 2.5h · Hurst 0.92 · Hedge ratio 0.76
Pair volatility: 26.92%
Backtest: 75.00% win · Sharpe 2.23 · 1.57% return · 1.95% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long XRP / Short PEOPLE
- Roll Z-Score (1h): 3.80 (High; indicates PEOPLE is statistically rich relative to XRP on a short-term basis).
- Roll Z-Score (4h): 1.21
- Roll Z-Score (1d): -0.73
- Correlation: 0.79
- Half-Life (1h): 60h (~2.5 days)
- Hedge Weights (4h): 43.6% XRP / 56.4% PEOPLE
Analysis:
- Statistical Setup: The 1h z-score of 3.80 is a strong mean-reversion signal, suggesting that PEOPLE has recently outperformed XRP significantly and is currently extended. The 4h z-score (1.21) confirms this short-term richness. Note that the 1d z-score (-0.73) is negative, indicating that over a longer timeframe, the pair has been trending in the opposite direction; this trade is a short-term mean-reversion play against recent volatility.
- Sentiment: Both assets currently hold bullish sentiment, but for different reasons. XRP is supported by structural catalysts (MiCA licensing), while PEOPLE is driven by retail memecoin speculation. This creates a "fundamental vs. speculative" divergence, which often leads to high volatility in the spread.
- Execution Note: Both assets are available on Hyperliquid (Core). Ensure sufficient USDC collateral for both legs. The 1h z-score is fresh (1.2h old), but given the high volatility of memecoins like PEOPLE, verify current spot prices before entry to ensure the z-score snapshot hasn't been invalidated by a massive intraday move.
XRP
PEOPLE