Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation.
Regime: STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence)
Correlation: 0.80 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: 1.72 entry / 1.95 rolling
Half-life 4.5h · Hurst 0.93 · Hedge ratio 0.72
Pair volatility: 25.19%
Backtest: 60.00% win · Sharpe -0.64 · -0.38% return · 1.26% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long ENS / Short ARB
This setup is currently supported by a strong 1h mean-reversion signal, with sentiment providing a fundamental tailwind for the short leg.
Statistical Diagnostics
- 1h Roll Z-Score: 1.95 (Indicates ARB is statistically "rich" relative to ENS; supports the Long ENS / Short ARB trade).
- 4h Roll Z-Score: -0.28 (Neutral; indicates the 1h signal is a short-term divergence).
- 1d Roll Z-Score: 0.95 (Mildly elevated).
- Correlation: 0.80 (1h) — strong co-movement, making this a viable pair for mean reversion.
- Hedge Weights (4h): 40.5% ENS / 59.5% ARB (Use for sizing).
Sentiment & Context
- ENS: Neutral. Community engagement is currently low, but the project retains strong structural backing.
- ARB: Bearish. Sentiment is weighed down by upcoming token unlocks, which are creating supply-side pressure.
- Signal Status: This pair is not currently among the top 5 active quant signals, but the 1h z-score of 1.95 suggests a significant short-term deviation that aligns with the bearish fundamental outlook for ARB.
Tradeability
- ENS: Tradeable on Hyperliquid (Max 5x).
- ARB: Tradeable on Hyperliquid (Max 10x).
Note: The 1h z-score is a snapshot (age ~1.3h); verify recent price action to ensure the divergence hasn't already corrected.
ENS
ARB