long spread · 4× leverage
Signal
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Rolling z-score | -1.14 |
| Z-score | -1.71 at entry · -1.65 pair |
| Correlation | 0.64 · cointegrated |
| Half-life | 1.5h |
| Hurst | 0.90 |
| Hedge ratio | 0.74 · long-term beta 1.02 |
| Beta stability | stable · current 0.74 · range 0.14–2.05 · 0 sign changes |
| Lead–lag peak corr | 0.64 |
| Pair volatility | 25.13% |
Backtest
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Win rate | 86.36% — 19W / 3L over 22 trades |
| Sharpe | 2.33 |
| Total return | +1.75% |
| Max drawdown | 1.46% |
Pair Analysis: Long ANIME / Short SUPER
- Roll Z-Score: -1.28 (1h) / -1.15 (4h)
- Interpretation: The negative z-score indicates ANIME is currently "cheap" relative to SUPER. Your chosen direction (Long ANIME / Short SUPER) aligns with the quant-optimal mean-reversion signal.
- Correlation: 0.63 (1h)
- Cointegration: True (1h, 4h)
- Hedge Weights (4h): 59.6% ANIME / 40.4% SUPER
Sentiment & Technical Context
- ANIME: Bearish sentiment driven by structural supply overhang from upcoming unlocks. Weak open interest suggests limited buying pressure to absorb this supply.
- SUPER: Bearish sentiment following a technical breakdown below key support levels. The token is currently tracking broader market weakness with a lack of specific catalysts to drive a reversal.
- Remark: This pair trade effectively isolates relative performance in a bearish sector. While both assets face headwinds, the negative z-score suggests ANIME has been oversold relative to SUPER. The trade relies on ANIME outperforming (or falling less than) SUPER as the spread mean-reverts. Given the bearish sentiment on both, monitor for a breakdown in correlation, which could invalidate the cointegration.
ANIME
SUPER