Correlation: 0.70 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: -1.15 entry / -1.85 rolling
Half-life 1.2h · Hurst 0.89 · Hedge ratio 0.28
Pair volatility: 30.75%
Backtest: 65.22% win · Sharpe -0.06 · -0.07% return · 2.40% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long LINEA / Short SAND
Statistical Diagnostics
- 1h Roll Z-Score: -2.14 (Strongly oversold; LINEA is statistically cheap relative to SAND)
- 4h Roll Z-Score: -1.55 (Supports mean reversion; LINEA remains cheap)
- 1d Roll Z-Score: 0.37 (Neutral/slightly rich; note the divergence from shorter timeframes)
- Correlation: 0.70 (1h)
- Cointegration: True (1h/4h)
- Half-Life: 28h (1h) / 11h (4h)
Sentiment & Fundamental Context
- LINEA (Bearish): Sentiment is heavily pressured by a massive 1.08B token unlock scheduled in 8 days. While the Exponent upgrade provides fundamental value, the looming supply shock and whale concentration are currently dominating price action.
- SAND (Bearish): Sentiment remains deeply bearish. The asset is in a persistent downtrend with minimal speculative interest, as the market continues to price in the project's pivot away from its original metaverse vision.
Remark
This setup is a relative value play rather than a directional conviction trade. The 1h and 4h z-scores (-2.14 and -1.55) provide a strong statistical basis for a mean-reversion trade (Long LINEA / Short SAND), suggesting LINEA is currently undervalued relative to SAND. However, the fundamental backdrop is challenging for both assets. The upcoming LINEA token unlock acts as a significant bearish catalyst that could override mean-reversion tendencies. If entering, prioritize tight risk management, as the trade relies on short-term statistical divergence in a sector with weak overall sentiment.
LINEA
SAND