Pair is still diverging, but the momentum is slowing. A potential reversal candidate.
Regime: PEAK_DIVERGENCE (medium confidence)
Correlation: 0.73 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: -1.30 entry / -2.35 rolling
Half-life 1.6h · Hurst 0.90 · Hedge ratio 2.04
Pair volatility: 34.62%
Backtest: 69.57% win · Sharpe 1.56 · 1.09% return · 1.38% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long STRK / Short SUPER
- Roll Z-Score (1h): -2.35 (STRK is statistically "cheap" relative to SUPER on a short-term basis)
- Roll Z-Score (4h): -0.27
- Correlation: 0.73 (1h)
- Half-Life: 40h (1h timeframe)
Analysis & Sentiment Note:
- Statistical Setup: The 1h z-score of -2.35 indicates a significant short-term mean-reversion opportunity, suggesting STRK has diverged negatively from SUPER.
- Sentiment Conflict: This trade is currently "fighting the tape." Sentiment for STRK is bearish due to structural supply overhang, while SUPER is experiencing bullish momentum driven by speculative accumulation and migration catalysts.
- Risk: While the statistical setup (z-score) supports a mean-reversion long on STRK, the fundamental sentiment is heavily skewed against it. The trade relies on the statistical divergence correcting faster than the bearish supply pressure on STRK or the bullish momentum on SUPER can push the spread further.
STRK
SUPER