Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation.
Regime: STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence)
Correlation: 0.72 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: -1.47 entry / -1.65 rolling
Half-life 3.0h · Hurst 0.92 · Hedge ratio 0.73
Pair volatility: 32.21%
Backtest: 71.43% win · Sharpe 1.89 · 1.40% return · 1.46% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long MOODENG / Short POLYX
This setup is a mean-reversion trade capitalizing on MOODENG being statistically "cheap" relative to POLYX. The trade direction aligns with both the quantitative z-score signals and the divergent sentiment profiles of the two assets.
Quantitative Stats
- 1h Roll Z-Score: -1.65 (Snapshot age: 1.3h)
- 4h Roll Z-Score: -1.29 (Snapshot age: 6.3h)
- 1d Roll Z-Score: -0.99 (Snapshot age: 1.6d)
- Correlation: 0.72 (1h)
- Hedge Ratio (4h): 1.28 (Sizing weight: 43.8% MOODENG / 56.2% POLYX)
Note: Negative z-scores indicate the spread is currently below its mean, suggesting MOODENG is undervalued relative to POLYX. The 1h z-score of -1.65 suggests a strong mean-reversion opportunity, though the snapshot is ~1.3 hours old.
Sentiment & Context
- MOODENG (Bullish): Renewed speculative interest and whale inflows are driving volume, supporting a momentum-based recovery.
- POLYX (Bearish): Weak liquidity and declining open interest suggest speculative exhaustion, with the market failing to price in upcoming mainnet upgrades.
Remark
This is a high-conviction mean-reversion setup. The quantitative signal (negative z-score) is reinforced by a clear sentiment divergence: you are long an asset with building momentum (MOODENG) and short an asset facing liquidity headwinds (POLYX). The 1h z-score of -1.65 provides a strong entry signal, though you should monitor for rapid price moves since the last snapshot.
MOODENG
POLYX