Z-score (1.24) is too close to the mean to be considered for a trade.
short spread · 5× leverage · regime IDLE (high confidence)
Signal
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Rolling z-score | 1.24 |
| Z-score | 1.50 at entry |
| Correlation | 0.61 · cointegrated |
| Half-life | 1.4h |
| Hurst | 0.89 |
| Hedge ratio | 1.80 · long-term beta 1.57 |
| Beta stability | stable · current 1.80 · range -0.01–6.20 · 2 sign changes |
| Lead–lag peak corr | 0.61 |
| Pair volatility | 41.29% |
| Momentum | z-velocity +0.08 · acceleration +0.02 · vol ratio 0.74 |
Backtest
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Win rate | 75.00% — 12W / 4L over 16 trades |
| Sharpe | 4.32 |
| Total return | +3.05% |
| Max drawdown | 1.72% |
- Pair: Long
xyz:TSM / Short para:IREN
- Venue: Both listed on Hyperliquid; each has a 10× maximum leverage cap.
- Roll Z-Score:
- 1h:
+1.24 — TSM/IREN spread is moderately extended; cointegration true, correlation 0.61, half-life ~32h.
- 4h:
+0.36 — near-neutral; cointegration false, correlation 0.58, half-life ~70h.
- 1d:
-0.30 — near-neutral; cointegration false, correlation 0.67.
- Hedge ratio / sizing reference: 4h weights:
27.3% TSM / 72.7% IREN; 1d: 29.7% TSM / 70.3% IREN.
- Statistical read: The 1h snapshot offers only a modest relative-value signal, while 4h/1d readings do not confirm a durable mean-reversion setup. Hurst values—
0.89 on 1h and 0.76 on 4h—also suggest persistence/trend risk rather than clean mean reversion.
- Sentiment/news: No sentiment or recent-news data returned for either TSM or IREN.
- Technicals: No asset-specific technical indicators were available; do not infer a technical edge.
- Remark: Weak/low-conviction setup. Long TSM / Short IREN has limited 1h support but lacks multi-timeframe confirmation and current news/sentiment validation; entry risk is elevated if IREN’s relative strength is driven by a fundamental or thematic catalyst rather than temporary dislocation.
TSM
IREN