Pair is still diverging, but the momentum is slowing. A potential reversal candidate.
Regime: PEAK_DIVERGENCE (medium confidence)
Correlation: 0.63 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: 2.11 entry / 4.14 rolling
Half-life 5.8h · Hurst 0.91 · Hedge ratio 0.44
Pair volatility: 33.71%
Backtest: 50.00% win · Sharpe -1.73 · -2.41% return · 4.26% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long UMA / Short CRV
- Roll Z-Score (1h): 4.14 (CRV is statistically rich relative to UMA)
- Roll Z-Score (4h): 2.30
- Roll Z-Score (1d): 1.40
- Correlation (1h): 0.63
- Hedge Weights (4h): 22.0% UMA / 78.0% CRV
Analysis:
- Statistical Alignment: The positive z-scores across all timeframes indicate that CRV has been trading rich relative to UMA, which aligns with your directional intent (Long UMA / Short CRV). The 1h z-score of 4.14 is significantly elevated, suggesting a strong mean-reversion signal.
- Sentiment Risk: While the statistical setup is compelling, UMA sentiment is currently bearish due to recent exploit concerns and trust issues regarding its oracle infrastructure. This fundamental headwind may counteract the mean-reversion signal, as the "richness" of CRV relative to UMA could be driven by UMA's specific weakness rather than CRV's strength.
- Execution Note: Both assets are available on Hyperliquid (Core). Note that UMA has a lower max leverage (3x) compared to CRV (10x); your position will be clamped to the lower cap if you attempt to exceed 3x.
UMA
CRV