Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation.
Regime: STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence)
Correlation: 0.71 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: 1.28 entry / 1.58 rolling
Half-life 4.4h · Hurst 0.90 · Hedge ratio 0.44
Pair volatility: 38.92%
Backtest: 69.23% win · Sharpe 0.44 · 0.30% return · 2.24% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long FET / Short APT
- Roll Z-Score: 1.58 (1h) / 1.21 (4h)
- Interpretation: The positive z-score indicates that APT is currently "rich" relative to FET. Your trade direction (Long FET / Short APT) aligns with the quant-optimal mean-reversion strategy.
- Correlation: 0.71 (1h)
- Hedge Weights (4h): 32.8% FET / 67.2% APT
- Sentiment:
- FET: Bullish; supported by whale accumulation and a mature token unlock schedule (96% unlocked).
- APT: Bullish; driven by structural upgrades (AIP-146) and ecosystem development, though currently seeing lower retail engagement.
Remark:
This setup is a classic mean-reversion play. The positive z-score suggests the spread has widened, with APT outperforming FET recently. By longing FET and shorting APT, you are betting on the spread tightening back toward the mean. Both assets share a bullish fundamental outlook, which may limit the downside of the long leg, but the trade relies on APT's relative overextension correcting. Monitor the 1h z-score closely; if it continues to climb, the spread may be in a regime shift rather than a simple mean-reversion.
FET
APT